US non-governmental organisation Serengeti Watch has said in a well publicized media pronouncement that the dam plan on Mara River on the Kenyan side of the border is not feasible for implementation, but did not say that authorities in Nairobi think so as well. They are more focused on enhancing irrigation agriculture there.
Since tourism is as important to the Kenyan economy as it is for Tanzania, it is not clear in what manner there was a feasibility study which indicated that the dam would be consonant with enhancing tourism in the zone as a whole.
Rather it is possible there was an indication that the impact for Kenya might be limited, while the study wouldn’t extend to place some credible measurements on potential impact on the other side of the tourism zone, as that would be going beyond its terms of reference. That is where the US NGO comes into place, pointing out that there is something wrong with that plan, as if the Nairobi authorities aren’t aware.
The plan is fairly substantial in its strategic standing on the other side, namely to build seven dams on the river flow from the Mau Forest,, implying that the water is reduced each time it meets a dam.
In that context there would be little that remains on the other side, that is, by the time it empts its water into Lake Victoria, which thus stands to impact on wildlife movement and assurance of water on a reliable basis, if current flows are significantly disrupted. The article, published by the prestigious Cambridge University Press says wildlife in Kenya would be impacted. Serengeti Watch said despite that the Mau Forest Highlands where the river has its main catchment area has been partially destructed, building dams would worsen that situation, as more forest cover would be removed to clear the land for dams.
The water would be diverted for irrigation “and effectively drying up the Mara River during times of drought,” thus affecting Lake Natron, also depending on streams linked to the river. The lake is home to a flouring population of flamingos.
The study said that Mara River is the only major source of water for wildebeest in the Serengeti during the dry season or when there is drought. That is why modeling (of results by entering hypothetical figures, data) shows about 80 per cent of the migrant animals could die. The Serengeti ecosystem can’t handle the seven dams.
Coming at this stage when Kenya is facing a devastating drought where cattle are being sold at throwaway prices, and trade in grain, natural gas has been difficult with Tanzania, this development is astonishing and phenomenal.
It involves making hard choices between wildlife conservation and irrigation, and seemingly leaving the game reserves to stand or fall with natural rainfall expectations, while the river is put to agricultural use more systematically.
In these days of inward looking policies where the foreign aid lever no longer operates with government as it did in the past, regional consultation on the matter is going to be difficult, but it is the only option available.
It can’t be a matter of litigating in the International Court of Justice or at the World Trade Organisation as it is but a territorial concern.
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