Gold concentrate talks start: Lessons from Mwalimu, in 1970

There is every indication that they want to see the back of this dispute while saving as much face as possible, which means reducing the liabilities they face to an acceptable level, minimal for ourselves and a maximum acceptable liability on their part. There is no question that the teams handling the talks are competent all round, but political signals will be decisive there.

Those familiar with strategic studies, which roughly includes even the game of football, know that in a tense competitive situation the most important part is to read the sort of game that the other side intends to play, before deciding what strategy to take in the game. 

Taking up a proper strategy means choosing among two or three options, and that decision is made after getting a feeling of what strategy the other side is aiming at, in which case one adapts strategy to suit the game plan or sentiments (implicit intentions) of the fellow across the table, or adversary. At times such position taking is scheduled and direct, and at times it is passive, through reactions.

There are two basic game plans possible, the first being a strategy intending to make the talks succeed, that is, carefully avoiding a breakdown where the two sides drift into court battles and bilateral sanctions, etc. 

The other kind of game plan is maximalist, expecting the other side to give way or ground all the way, so that objectives which the government has set out publicly are realised as they are, which implicitly leads to breakdown of the talks and confrontational engagement in courts and in bilateral ties, etc. It is uncertain if the government team has in place a worked out strategy, or if it expects the other side to come over and accept all our claims, etc.

That is where we can pick a word of wisdom from the late Francois Mitterrand, the socialist president of France from 1981 to 1995 when the opposition centre right Republicans and Liberal centrists won legislative polls in 1986, while his term as President of the Republic was unaffected by that vote. 

Making a nationwide televised address he said he would work with an opposition government on the basis of ‘the constitution, all of the constitution, and nothing but the constitution,’ which needs to be applied in our case.  

The constitution here does not relate to national constitutions but international law, which will be used in arbitration or in any sanctions.

Taking up a strategic position towards compromising is not a sound idea for militants, and the government team is likely to be composed of individuals who are militant concerning the matter. Barrick Gold as well would wish that talks focus on the original contract(s) without any further observation, but it has also an interest in a compromise which makes it possible to continue in business, and hopefully in a sustainable way.  The point is that each side wishes for a positive outcome but what could unravel that effort is if the two sides fall far short of what back in 1970 Mwalimu, in a speech to the Maryknoll Sisters, a franchise of the Catholic Church, said; “the courage of reconciliation.” Outside that ambit of intentions a costly breakdown shall then follow.