Final ‘derbies’: Trepidation, expectation and resignation

As is usually the case, pundits do not have real freedom in projecting the games, much as it is difficult to project how the games go, and in that context, there is plenty of room for wishful thinking on how things can go.

It is a confused pack where there is an effort to project and a belief as to how it will all turn out soon.

For once, victory projections are vigorous on the part of Simba SC meeting Horoya AC at Benjamin Mkapa Stadium, alias ‘Estadio Lupaso,’ while the whole idea of a Yanga win against US Monastir is somewhat dimly expressed, with both sides standing dim chances of progressing into the quarterfinals.

That much is easy to concede but not shouted for everyone to hear, as projection is like psychological advice, where the math is tainted with the wish to soothe the spirits of the fans.

That makes scientific projection overly difficult to secure, as pundits displace the goalposts for results.

These predictions are prone to what is known in tennis as ‘unforced errors', where a player on the other side of the court makes more mistakes than failing to control the ball by the power of its being hit by an opponent.

But they remain within the realm of possibility, like Simba SC beating Horoya AC on home ground to secure a ticket to the quarterfinals, as a draw would hand a clear advantage to the visiting Guinean side.

Scarcely did pundits discuss the possibility of a draw, as the visitors defeated the home side 1-0 in the first game, why can’t the club get a draw?

Pundits’ cards as to chances of Yanga beating US Monastir were being held close to the chest as the confidence was lacking, whereas Simba SC also lost against Horoya AC, hut by a narrower margin.

The hope appears to be more inclined to Yanga winning the final tie at Lubumbashi early next month, a match that is not on everyone’s lips as yet but it is taken for granted on account of what Simba SC did with Vipers SC, winning both away and home ties.

The idea of either losing or drawing is conceptually limited to away matches, not those at Estadio Lupaso.

This means there could be some surprises lined up or hidden in the sleeves of this best-scenario mentality where the archrivals win both critical matches against non-North African rivals.

It is a sort of rule created by fanatics of the game in Dar es Salaam, that ‘no one survives’ at ‘Estadio Lupaso’ unless perhaps it is a North African side.

Earlier on when Simba SC could hold its ground against much-fanciers, Egypt's Al Ahly, in-home and away matches, that rule seemed to work but not after the painful 3-0 loss to Morocco's Raja Casablanca lately.

Yanga settled for a 1-1 draw with Al Hilal SC in Dar es Salaam and then lost 1-0 in Omdurman, thus the rule has a caveat, presently.

On the face of it Yanga looked like they had a more realistic chance of winning their away match than Simba SC ‘obtaining results’ in their local tie against Horoya AC, meanwhile – like Yanga in their local tie with US Monastir – take that match more or less for granted.

Either side can hope for a draw against North African sides, while Yanga had in happier days obtained a win against Club Africain of Tunisia, leading them to expect a repeat with US Monastir.

The trouble in part is that results are hard to repeat, and can be repeated inversely, not in one’s favour.

That is why there is a mixture of feelings, from positive expectations to intense apprehension or trepidation, bordering on fear, as to what happens in crucial ties – those where the local side must win to ensure progress to the next stage.

In both groups of the continental competitions, the assured passage is that of the North African side while the second place is in the contest, with two local rivals having fairly dissimilar chances to proceed.

But that impression could turn out to be deceptive as Horoya AC and TP Mzembe have a similar view on the two sides, in their respective outings – that is defeat Simba SC again to proceed, while Simba SC thinks of reversing initial results. And TP Mazembe thinks of reversing results too.

The rule about projecting results is that immediately prior results be respected, and then slight home advantage be added into the sum or equation, and that would appear to favour Yanga.

They stand to get a slim win in Lubumbashi if the record stands without surprises, while Simba SC would by that sort of math obtain a drawn match on home ground, rather than a clear win.

US Monastir won by two goals away to TP Mazembe and by a single goal at home to the same side, so Horoya AC has a chance of either standing their narrow win ground or obtaining a draw.

Winning for Simba SC is more improbable than would be for Yanga even in an away match, by the kind of results obtained in current Group Stage matches either way.

If it does not work out that way, the fans already know who to blame, and why.