Weather forecasting has a long way to go

Those already in operation are stationed in Dar es Salaam, Mwanza and Mtwara, often in rural outposts suitable for setting up such facilities.  This additional focus shall more intensely cover weather patterns over the respective areas, in which case a modification of weather forecasting can be practiced.

At the moment the pattern of weather forecasting is to collect the data from the various stations and figure out the patterns likely for the various zones, and then issue periodic updates of what to expect in the next month or two, and somewhat longer projections. This has definitely helped to create an overall impression of where the country stands with regard to rainfall prospects, for instance at this moment it is clearly known that the country will be enveloped by a relatively warmer and rather drier period. That is, up to major rains in April (or starting somewhat earlier).

Even without using much time glancing at the news pieces involved – aside from an actual weather patterns documentary which is out of reach for the general public – it is clear that the broad intention is the grain cultivation outlook. Grain prospects are vital for economic life as a whole as underproduction of the vital food stock, maize for that matter, rattles markets and creates a negative situation for checking inflation as a whole. In the current season there is the background of a bumper harvest before oil prices rose; a poor harvest and oil price rise is risky.

Yet there is an area where weather forecasts are equally applicable but are hardly being used, one reason being that they aren’t detailed enough, but at the same time the sphere involved, mainly horticulture, is often identified with irrigation farming. So forecasting here may relate to relative supply of water or if any crisis is developing as to sources of irrigation water as horticultural crops often fetch astronomical prices in world markets, and provoke frenetic expansion of farms. It is bad for conservation as villagers and even district authorities push back conservation limits.

There are other areas which could definitely make greater use of weather forecasting if their economic activities were technologically improved, for instance harvesting grass for later use in case there are good rains during end year periods or long rains season. Cattle can’t be grazed on all grassy areas when there is plenty of grass but lack of grass harvesting techniques wastes such resource to dry out, depend on rains for grass to come up again in good time. With unpredictable rainfall patterns in the climate change context, this can be rectified, but it requires that grazing land be mapped out and leased to individuals for long periods, so that economics can flourish.