Marsabit, Simanjiro disasters demand innovative solutions

In both areas the extent of drought was higher than is habitually experienced, with cattle dying for lack of water and feed, while humans are basically under the shadow of famine, as much of their cash for purchasing grain or other supplies arises from selling livestock. Now they are mostly dead and those sold fetch scant market value.

News reports and broadcasts have focused on two aspects, one the need for food aid to help communities and another theme is the need for assistance to restock their cattle numbers. Authorities are definitely looking to ferrying grain supplies and nutritional packages especially for children under the age of five, but restocking is a different proposition, as it would require a study to see how much is sustainable. Are droughts accidental occurrences as in the past or can they be predicted nearly with certainty these days?

There is obviously something of an accident- or bad luck – as to why it is Marsabit or Simanjiro that faces acute drought situations and not countless other wards or districts in the whole of northern Kenya or in Arusha and Manyara regions. Weather forecasting being what it is, such things can’t be told a priori because what happens in one area is a result at a distant place of factors converging in the local sky and thousands of kilometers away. That includes the well explained La Nina condition in the southern Pacific Ocean that brings about a cold spell over much of the ocean, affecting precipitation in a worldwide belt.

What all the same is incontrovertible is that climate change as a phenomenon, occasioning acute droughts and infrequent heavy rainfall with often devastating results is part of the weather menu that the world must contend with. That is why such crises call for measures relating to the use of World Bank climate change adaptation funds, but not necessarily in the way stakeholders map out issues. The part relating to food aid doesn’t call for use of World Bank funds but emergency coffers within the central government, but a restocking exercise has to be part of a wider strategy involving communities in such exposed areas.

It isn’t early to say if such issues have even begun being addressed, for instance is the herd grazing mode of keeping cattle is still relevant in the present situation. In the best of times, a rising population of cattle keepers and rising demand for agricultural land leads to intermittent conflicts that are often played down by officials at various levels. The reason is that they arise from personal behavior – like grazing on a farm – and officials don’t wish to crowd remand prisons with such offenders. Restocking aid could address that kind of situation, as to what modality leads to fewer crises, or conflicts.