Big powers seem excessively neutral in Ethiopian conflict

-seeking outside support is unavoidable. Some of it was available to Ethiopia from its former province of Eritrea owing to the bitter history of warfare between the ethnic groups fighting for control of central government, or breaking away. It didn’t last long and more recently Ethiopia looked like it was falling apart with advancing rebels.

That situation is in the course of being reversed, as the rebels had stretched into other provinces to unite with other groups discontented with reforms in Addis Ababa, and launched a multipronged assault to surround the capital from various sides. Those studied in warfare were wondering if the rebels had the strength and resource base to sustain that onslaught, and after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed left the work of governing in caretaker hands to lead the resistance to this onslaught, things appear to be changing. And it also appears it is regional powers in the neighbourhood and further north that are helping out, visibly.

While Ethiopia wasn’t actually being demanded to accept conditions of the rebels, the emphasis really was on the federal authorities not to press its case in the matter, let matters slide in a direction that was unpredictable. At present the rebels have opted to move out of other provinces as the positions are now unsustainable, and urge their friends in global humanitarian camps to tell the federal government to stop operations in Tigray province, which implies that there is a war between Tigray and Ethiopia, a faulty position. The issue is that the province needs to lay down arms and recognise federal authority there.

It is possible that rebel leaders look upon the Eritrean example to try to secede but the party of so-called secession was in office in Addis Ababa for the better part of 30 years, from the time that Meles Zenawi replaced Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991 when Eritrea formally seceded, to 2019. Eritrea was, on the contrary, seized by Emperor Haile Selassie in 1962 to be made part of Ethiopia, partly on account of its long coastline, and anyway the people of the area are kindred. That is history, but Tigray doesn’t have such excuse, that it had for the better part of the late colonial period developed as a separate entity, etc.

Africa can’t afford to ignore the fact that thousands of people have lost their lives and many are suffering because a party leadership decided that ‘if we aren’t ruling in the capital, then we separate and form an independent country.’ That is a morally faulty position, and coercing the federal authorities to look the other way as the country breaks apart isn’t exactly a responsible position either. That is what it really is.