Dr Ladislaus Chang’a, the TMA acting director general, said at a press conference yesterday that enhanced rainfall is expected for most of March, 2024.
Unlike the outgoing period where the rain projection tendency was above normal to normal, this time TMA projects normal to above normal rains over most areas which receive rains twice a year, namely end of year rains (Vuli) and the long rains (Masika).
The weather expert said that when there is excessive heat, there is a possibility of heavy rains, “therefore the current heat may come to an end next week when the rain starts.”
A number of weather watchers however feel that the reduction in the heat will just be relative, as the cool season starts early May until end of October, and in between there are variations of humidity which are felt as average or excessive heat.
Dar es Salaam and other regions have been experiencing heatwaves for a couple of weeks now. High temperatures have caused discomfort, and health experts say they could lead to cases of heat exhaustion and even death.
The long rains are expected to start during the fourth week of February over most areas and cease in the third and fourth weeks of May, he said.
An online entry says that East Africa’s rainfall pattern, a savannah rather than equatorial forest pattern, has two rainy seasons—the heaviest rains (called Masika ) usually fall from mid-March to May and a shorter period of rain (called vuli ) occurs in November and December.
A writer at www.expertafrica.com links the rainfall pattern with seasonal winds, noting inter alia that it is the slightly cooler ‘Kusi’ (southward) winds that normally deliver the heaviest rain. It also appears to be implied in the TMA forecast about reduction or ending excessive heat.
This is the season known as the 'long rains' which the writer identifies with the late-April, May and early June period, distinct from late February to late May as in the TMA forecast.
TMA says that the incoming long rains are specific for the north eastern highland regions of Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro, northern coast (northern part of Morogoro region, Coast (including Mafia Island), Dar es Salaam and Tanga regions, Unguja and Pemba isles), the Lake Victoria Basin (Kagera, Geita, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Simiyu and Mara regions) and the northern part of Kigoma region.
Authorities in weather sensitive sectors need to take precautions to reduce effects of severe weather by utilising tailor-made products provided by TMA during planning and implementations of their activities, he stated.
Periods of excessive soil moisture and flooding may occur and affect crop and farm management which may impact on agriculture and food security, he stated.
Diseases such as fungus are expected to increase and affect crops such as tomatoes, sesame, beans and root crops. However, normal agricultural practices will proceed without undue difficulty in most areas, he further noted.
He advised farmers to prepare their fields, plant, implement weeding and use relevant farm inputs timely, use the best methods and technologies to prevent water stagnation in the field, erosion and loss of soil fertility, choosing the right seeds and crops for enhanced yields.
Farmers need to strengthen agricultural infrastructure particularly in low lying areas, and control crop pests and diseases in a timely manner to reduce potential impacts, the forecast intoned.
Relevant authorities in the tourism and wildlife sector need to improve various facilities in wildlife reserves and create awareness among the surrounding community to take appropriate actions, it affirmed.
Transporters could be affected due to the expected weather conditions that may lead to damage of road and infrastructure resulting in an increased number of accidents for land transport, trip delays and cancellations of flights, the director added.