The big blindspots: threats to Africa’s security come

This is now a deep examination of the threat extremists pose to the continent’s future, and also a renewed focus on how to take the lead in solving the challenge of trends such as the extension of term limits.

So real is the first challenge that countries previously thought immune and tolerant such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Senegal are finding themselves increasingly on edge.

But in the not-too-distant future, new threats could come from the most unlikely, yet most obvious, of places—the African economy.

It is an unexpected place—the near-runaway growth of the regional economy has in the last two decades greatly excited a continent used to past disappointments over its growth prospects, giving rise to the hope-inspiring “Africa Rising” phrase.
But underneath it is a reality that the headline numbers do not do enough for the average African, and that the shifting terrain threatens to light the fuse on a time bomb.

ON February 10, a manager at Ghana’s Obuasi mine was tragically killed after artisanal miners rioted, demanding more access to the main mine run by the continent’s top gold producer, AngloGold Ashanti.
Demanding a better share

The mine has lately cut back on capacity, as declining world commodity prices pushed its operator to cut costs, after it booked billions of dollars in losses. But at the heart of the Obuasi dispute was a demand for more access to the continent’s natural resources, which many commuinities feel continue to largely benefit external markets to their detriment.

As the world grew increasingly smaller under the g-forces of globalisation, the tightened integration of markets was seen as a boon for the continent, providing a bigger tapestry for it to paint its narrative of transformative growth.
But world events are instead casting a stubborn pall of uncertainty around growth and investment, showing up the challenges of depending on others.

The main highlight around this volatility has been the economic rebalancing of China, as Africa’s biggest trade partner tilts towards a future driven by services and consumption. This has meant its appetite for the continent’s commodities significantly eased, throwing several top African exporters off balance.

Exacerbated by the problem of market gluts due to oversupply, and steep plunges in oil prices as major producers in the Americas and Asia duel for market share, it is a re-orientation that could reshape the continent’s balance of power.
With Africa having only a minute share of global international trade (at 2% now lower than in the 1990s), fiscal deficits have widened.

Countries from Nigeria and Angola to Zambia and South Africa are struggling to meet their end of the social contract, including the creation of life opportunities for their citizenry in an environment sold as being full of promise.
Technology threat

It gets worse—Africa’s drive to industrialisation could run into a new type of headwind—that of automation, slowing down or in extreme cases erasing job creation. More surprisingly, the most vulnerable to having their lunch eaten by robots are those working in its mainstay agriculture.

With nearly 15 million youths joining the labour market on the continent every year in Africa, they are finding precious few opportunities, making for very many disgruntled young people.

The result is they then become prime recruits for radicalisation, or in their desperate need for survival place unsustainable demands on an environment that is already fragile, making for a challenging mix that poses a threat to the continent’s foundations.

There is a renewed focus on continental integration to turn growth inwards and make it more reliable, but the danger is that it is often tinged with nostalgia, while positioning mega-infrastructure and trade blocs as the cure-all.
Leaving out youth

The risk is that such “historical” conversations are light on the dividends of demography, leaving out the young people on the continent, half of who are aged under 20. For integration to mean anything to this demographic, it must appeal to their futures.

Solutions to such unexpected, but not inevitable, problems will be the focus of the Tana High Level Forum taking place in Ethiopia in April, with former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan the headline speaker this year.

A no-holds-barred meeting that attracts heads of states in an informal-style parley where all issues are tackled, it comes at a time when the feeling is that despite Africa being the focus of many international meetings, it has just not owned the conversation.

With a rapidly changing world, carving out a clear path forward that Africa can own is now an urgent necessity; the continent’s continued survival depends on it.